An outbreak of a new disease COVID-19 caused by a new Coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, shortened to SARS-CoV-2) showed us how little we know about its characteristics.
A brand new genotype of a Coronavirus strain which is related to SARS.
That's certainly an interesting subject. But at the moment we'll have to coop with a huge knowledge gap.
It is important to collect trustworthy data, and to process it in order to evaluate the spreading of the virus, in order to adjust the cooping strategies around the world.
By making this document I try to get a sence of the potential danger of contamination, and further impacts. Meanwhile I try to provide readers some insides into the current data and provide information about the virus which I hope they might find usefull.
Below you find a table for the severity of the symptomes distribution a medical doctor (John Campbell) compiled and published on Youtube around 16/3/2020.
It is 24/4/20 today, so it is time for some additional info you might not yet be aware of.
The European CDC publishes daily statistics on the COVID-19 pandemic. Not just for Europe, but for the entire world.
The ECDC makes all their data available in a daily updated clean downloadable file. This gets updated daily reflecting data collected up to 6:00 and 10:00 CET. The data made public via the downloadable data file is published at 1pm CET, and is used to produce a page that gets updated daily under the name Situation Update Worldwide.
We discuss our data sources and why we rely on the data from the ECDC rather than other institutions at the end of this article here.
It is important to note that the number of confirmed cases or deaths reported by the ECDC on a given day does not represent the actual number of new cases or deaths on that date. This is because of the long reporting chain that exists between a new case or death, and its inclusion in national or international statistics.
This article discusses the length of this reporting chain in detail for Germany, and how this affects the timing of reported statistics. The steps in this chain will be similar across most other countries. For a confirmed case to be reported in national or international statistics, it has to go through most or all of the following steps:
The number of cases daily per country is limited at 8000; which in turn gives the brightest color.
Calculate the log of the confirmed cases and deaths
|Disease||Estimated case fatality rate (CFR)||Source|
|SARS-CoV||10%||Venkatesh and Memish (2004)|
|MERS-CoV||34%||Munster et al. (2020)|
|Seasonal flu (US)||0.1%||US CDC|
|Ebola||50% (40% in the 2013-16 outbreak)||WHO (2020)|
This map is interactive: zoom in and point for more data. last update: 30/04/2020