Table of Contents



Inspiration

An outbreak of a new disease COVID-19 caused by a new Coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, shortened to SARS-CoV-2) showed us how little we know about its characteristics.

A brand new genotype of a Coronavirus strain which is related to SARS.

That's certainly an interesting subject. But at the moment we'll have to coop with a huge knowledge gap.

It is important to collect trustworthy data, and to process it in order to evaluate the spreading of the virus, in order to adjust the cooping strategies around the world.

By making this document I try to get a sence of the potential danger of contamination, and further impacts. Meanwhile I try to provide readers some insides into the current data and provide information about the virus which I hope they might find usefull.

Below you find a table for the severity of the symptomes distribution a medical doctor (John Campbell) compiled and published on Youtube around 16/3/2020.

Severity_Pct cumul
No symptomes 6.700 6.700
Unspecified 10.600 17.300
Few 6.700 24.000
Mild 46.100 70.100
Severe 24.900 95.000
Critical 5.000 100.000

Additional info

It is 24/4/20 today, so it is time for some additional info you might not yet be aware of.

  • Good news: this virus seems to mutate fast. Let's hope the variants with the mildest pathology will prevail, soon.
  • Most fatalities are to be found in the group of old age people, or patients with 1 of more serious health issue as cardio vascular etc.
  • The incubation period ranges from 2 till 27 days. Consider the suspicion that +- 50% of those who got contaminated, hove no or mild symptoms.
  • It is remarkable that this virus jumped over from bats - over pangolins - to humans in such a fast time, without any red flags being raised. At least that is the current idea. In genetical and evolutional sence this is a new world record.
  • When I learned that the Chinese bought in 2018 corona strains in Canada and USA, and the bio engineering technology in Australia, some kind of human intervention came in focus.
  • After that I learned of a Chinese virologist Dr. Zhileng Ji who is an expert in corona virus in bats for over 20 years. She wrote in a paper that she taught of a possibility that some genes in pangolin viri seemed to more easily get into lung cells by fitting on the angiotensine convertor enzyme S receptor.

COVID19 Worldwide distribution

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide
The European CDC publishes daily statistics on the COVID-19 pandemic. Not just for Europe, but for the entire world.

The ECDC makes all their data available in a daily updated clean downloadable file. This gets updated daily reflecting data collected up to 6:00 and 10:00 CET. The data made public via the downloadable data file is published at 1pm CET, and is used to produce a page that gets updated daily under the name Situation Update Worldwide.

We discuss our data sources and why we rely on the data from the ECDC rather than other institutions at the end of this article here.

It is important to note that the number of confirmed cases or deaths reported by the ECDC on a given day does not represent the actual number of new cases or deaths on that date. This is because of the long reporting chain that exists between a new case or death, and its inclusion in national or international statistics.

This article discusses the length of this reporting chain in detail for Germany, and how this affects the timing of reported statistics. The steps in this chain will be similar across most other countries. For a confirmed case to be reported in national or international statistics, it has to go through most or all of the following steps:

  1. Doctor or laboratory diagnoses a COVID-19 case based on testing or combination of symptoms and epidemiological probability (such as a close family member testing positive).
  2. Doctor or laboratory submits report to health department of the city or local district.
  3. Health department receives the report and records each individual case manually in the electronic system, including important patient information.
  4. Local or city health departments submit reports to state departments.
  5. State health departments send updates to their ministry. Press office of the ministry then develops communication strategy and publishes the latest figures.
  6. International data bodies such as the WHO or the ECDC can then collate statistics from all national accounts. This official reporting chain can take several days. This is why the figures reported on any given date do not necessarily reflect the number of new cases or deaths on that specific date.

Source extract: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#confirmed-covid-19-deaths-by-country

dateRep cases deaths countriesAndTerritories geoId countryterritoryCode popData2018 continentExp
17537 2020-04-28 00:00:00 1 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17536 2020-04-29 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17535 2020-04-30 00:00:00 2 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17534 2020-05-01 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17533 2020-05-02 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17532 2020-05-03 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17531 2020-05-04 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17530 2020-05-05 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17529 2020-05-06 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17528 2020-05-07 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17527 2020-05-08 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17526 2020-05-09 00:00:00 1 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17525 2020-05-10 00:00:00 1 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17524 2020-05-11 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17523 2020-05-12 00:00:00 1 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17522 2020-05-13 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17521 2020-05-14 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17520 2020-05-15 00:00:00 0 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17519 2020-05-16 00:00:00 5 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
17518 2020-05-17 00:00:00 2 0 Zimbabwe ZW ZWE 14439018 Africa
replace Curaçao

Cases_on_an_international_conveyance_Japan

Prolific : the top selection of countries

Heatmap on timeline for the number of cases by country

The number of cases daily per country is limited at 8000; which in turn gives the brightest color.

Calculate the log of the confirmed cases and deaths

Falkland_Islands has no countryterritoryCode (Three_Letter_Country_Code)

Anguilla population 15000 AIA Bonaire, Saint Eustatius and Saba 25.987 NL-BQ1

Estimated case fatality rate (CFR) of other notable diseases

Disease Estimated case fatality rate (CFR) Source
SARS-CoV 10% Venkatesh and Memish (2004)
MERS-CoV 34% Munster et al. (2020)
Seasonal flu (US) 0.1% US CDC
Ebola 50% (40% in the 2013-16 outbreak) WHO (2020)

Current case fatality rate COVID-19: worldmap

This map is interactive: zoom in and point for more data. last update: 30/04/2020